Forecasts, Wishes, and Worries
We are drawn to all three for very different reasons: forecasts, wishes, and worries.
Understanding the Differences
Recently David Booth (the Executive Chairman and Founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors) wrote an essay on the difference between forecasts, wishes, and worries. Understanding how these three concepts interact in our thought process is critical to your success as an investor.
I would define a FORECAST as:
- An estimate or prediction of a future happening or condition.
I would define a WISH as:
- An expressed will or desire.
I would define a WORRY as:
- A state of anxiety and uncertainty over actual or potential problems.
How We Are Wired
I believe that we are wired to dream (WISH) big for outcomes (FORECASTS) that we desire. At the same time, we have fears (WORRIES) that what we dream about will not materialize.
If ever there were a recipe for a predator to capitalize on, this is it! Paint a picture of some wonderful outcome that is a “sure thing,” and we will latch onto it in a heartbeat!
However, the old saying that “if it sounds to be good to true it probably is” needs to continually remain at the forefront of our minds.
We need to target outcomes that are backed by the data (which is my kind of forecasting!), trust that history has a habit of repeating itself (more than a wish in my mind), and set aside the fear that others love to put into our minds (unnecessary worry).
Data-driven, fact-based methodologies have a much better track record
than forecasts that play on our worries and exploit our wishes.
While we know that forecasts are never going to be right, we also know that data-driven, fact-based methodologies have a much better track record than forecasts that play on our worries and exploit our wishes.
Stick with the facts and you’ll find that your worries are minimized over the long term.
Would You Like More Support?
- Do you have a well-defined Investment Policy Strategy that is used to drive your investments in support of a comprehensive financial plan?
- If not, would you like to partner with someone who is used to helping people get through these struggles and (then, with confidence) implement portfolio strategies in a systematic manner while focusing on your desired outcomes?
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